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Trends, Challenges, and Strategic Responses for Australian Churches and Denominations in 2026

THRIVING TOGETHER BLOG INTRO

For many years, I have shared both the pain and joys of those who work with churches. Like many of you, I have often wondered if there are better ways to thrive together and make a missional impact on our world. It’s not about trying harder; it’s about doing different things in new ways. This involves interrupting our routines and reflecting on our practices.


As a pastoral supervisor, trainer, lecturer, and consultant for churches and non-profits, I strive to provide valuable insights. I hope my posts serve as refreshing water for those planted in churches and leading denominations so we can thrive together.


Please let me know your thoughts in the comments. Or you can reach out to me through my website: www.ianduncum.com.au.





Trends, Challenges, and Strategic Responses for Australian Churches and Denominations in 2026

A Landscape of Rapid Change, Innovation, and Resilience

Predictions are never always rght. But trends emerge; they can be traced from smaller beginngs and grow. The key lies in responding adaptively to those trends. So wiith humility, here is what I see happening in Australia, as move around churches and denominations.

Australian Context in 2026

In 2026, Australian churches find themselves navigating a complex environment shaped by economic pressures, increasing polarization, political fragmentation, mental health concerns, rapid digital transformation, and an expanding landscape of spiritual and cultural diversity. Trust in institutions remains fragile after the pandemic and ongoing culture wars, intensifying the divide between struggling smaller congregations and a minority of innovative churches that adapt swiftly to hybrid ministry, changing demographics, and evolving community needs.

Emerging Social and Technological Trends

·       Artificial Intelligence and Inequality: The rapid spread of AI across work, education, and media raises new ethical and practical questions, potentially deepening the divide between high-skill and low-skill workers.

·       Immigration and Religious Diversity: Ongoing immigration is reshaping urban and suburban communities, increasing the presence of Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, and the religiously unaffiliated (“nones”). This offers significant opportunities for missional outreach and engagement, as well as monocultural and multicultural churches.

The Australian Religious Landscape

·       Declining Christian Affiliation: Projections indicate a continued decline in Christianity’s share of the population, with both non-Christian religions and “no religion” categories growing. This decline appears to be slowing, with young adults and over 50s the main contributors.

·       Attendance and Vitality: Despite long-term declines, church attendance has rebounded post-COVID-19, with approximately 1.3–1.35 million weekly attenders in 2024–2025—about 86–89% of 2001 levels. Pentecostal churches have almost fully recovered, while mainstream Protestant attendance lags behind. Baptisms, confirmations, and professions of faith are also increasing, signaling vitality beyond mere attendance.

·       Pockets of Growth: While overall affiliation declines, roughly 7% of Australians remain committed attenders, with adaptive and innovative churches demonstrating particular resilience and growth.

Church Practice and Ministry Trends

·       Hybrid Ministry: Successful churches integrate online and in-person engagement, treating digital platforms as a primary entry point rather than just a Sunday service broadcast. Vital churches have integration ministries that relationally nurture people across various levels of commitment to Christ, both online and personally.

·       AI and Digital Tools: Churches are adopting AI and digital tools for administration and communication, but require clearer ethical and theological guidance for their use.

·       Multisite Models: Multisite churches are on the rise, both as healthy congregations multiply and as declining churches seek support through partnerships with more vibrant communities.

·       Mental Health and Pastoral Care: There is an increased focus on mental health, isolation, and burnout, highlighting the need for trauma-aware pastoral care, and counseling partnerships. Because of the resulting pressure on ministers, many denominations now recommend or require pastoral supervision (this also has benefits in ministry reflection and practice).

·       Neighborhood and Micro-Churches: Smaller, neighborhood-based groups are seen as vital for resilient discipleship and mission in a fragmented, time-constrained society, provided they are part of a spiritually entrepreneurial network that maintains a focus on mission and multiplication.

Strategic Priorities for Local Churches

·       Financial Stewardship: Reevaluate budgets and staffing with realistic expectations about giving under economic pressure, prioritizing discipleship, pastoral care, and mission over maintaining underused programs.

·       Leadership Development: Invest time in emerging leaders to skill them in adaptive change, conflict resolution, and cross-cultural competence, especially in multi-ethnic and multi-generational contexts.

·       Vision and Communication: Clearly articulate and embody a credible, simple vision that addresses both spiritual needs and everyday pressures, maintaining integrity between message and practice.

·       Justice and Outreach: Churches that engage with justice issues and local needs, while keeping the gospel at the centre, are more likely to connect with secular-leaning communities. Encouragement of personal faith sharing (not solely through church programs) is highly correlated to every other measure of church vitality.

Strategic Directions for Denominations

·       Simplification and Adaptation: Denominations must streamline structures, focus on disciple-making, prioritize planting and replanting, and cultivate adaptive and entrepreneurial leaders. Multi-site and networked models are becoming increasingly important alongside traditional congregations.

·       Generational Shifts and Digital Integration: All traditions must address generational change, digital engagement, and the growing popularity of networked church models. There is a growing shortage of pastoral leaders, especially in younger generations. Spiritual entrepreneurs—often Gen Z and Millennials—are gravitating toward church planting and NGOs, partially due to a lack of church accountability for pastoral exits and unclarity around Fair Work Act applicability in a church context. Addressing these issues will help attract more pastors to established congregations.

·       Strategic resource use: Denominations should determine realistic thresholds for congregational closure and stop supporting unsustainable ministries. For such unsustainable ministries, denominational subsides often delay or mask declining spiritual vitality.

·       Leadership Pipelines: Some denominations are developing two-track systems: one for ordinands/accreditands and another for ministry staff with lower formal education requirements, enabling quicker deployment and accommodating those pursuing multiple career paths over a lifetime. Churches that develop leadership pipelines and invest in training and mentoring young adults will do better, and the wider benefit will be leaders in various sectors of society (eg health, education, etc) as well as pastors and planters.

·       Structural Agility: Many denominations still operate with outdated governance models; more agile structures that empower local innovation and multiplication are needed. Collaboration across denominations and networks is essential as attenders are increasingly spread across smaller, independent movements. Denominations need to determine whether they are merely service providers to, or collaborative leaders of, congregations.

·       Church Planting and Replanting: The 2025 church planting report notes 148 Protestant churches planted in the year ending June 30, 2025, with the highest rates in Christian Community Churches Australia, Seventh-day Adventists, and Australian Christian Churches. This planting may be starting to outrun church closures, although up to date figures for either total or net closures (was around 48 per year to 2016) are not available. Denominations should normalize and resource church planting and replanting as standard practice, supporting simple churches, regional hubs, and multisite campuses. Churches that plant churches appear to give the best planting outcomes, both in speed and survivability, and the Resource Church model is growing in popularity.

·       Engagement with Younger Generations: Gen Z and Millennials are spiritually curious but wary of traditional forms. They respond to participatory, relational, digitally integrated, and justice-oriented expressions of church. Learning from and partnering with growing Pentecostal, charismatic, emerging, and Orthodox groups—known for strong communities and clear identities—can be mutually beneficial.

·       Leadership Development and Support: Advanced training now emphasizes adaptive change, systems thinking, and emotionally healthy leadership. Denominational support should prioritize coaching or supervision, peer-learning, and well-being for pastors, moving beyond compliance and reporting.

·       Digital and Physical Mission Integration: Digital engagement has become the primary entry point for church life. Denominations can provide shared platforms, training, and content to enhance digital capacity, especially for smaller congregations. Multisite and network models, with central hubs supporting multiple congregations, can address clergy shortages, rural constraints, and cost pressures if denominational policies adapt accordingly.


What do you think? We would love your feedback and to continue the conversation!


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© 2025 Ian Duncum. All rights reserved. No reproduction without written permission. Rev Dr Ian Duncum is a trained and accredited church consultant with over 20 years of experience with non-profit enterprises and churches across several denominations. This includes denominational leadership in church health, church planting, consultancy training, and adjunct lecturing & research in the tertiary education sector. An accredited minister with a track record of growing churches, Ian trains church consultants, facilitates training for ministers and leaders, and supervises pastors and other leaders. Ian can be contacted at ian@ianduncum.com.au.

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(C) Ian Duncum 2017 & 2025. All rights reserved. Reproduction of website or its contents is forbidden without written permission.

(C) Ian Duncum 2017 & 2021. All rights reserved. Reproduction of website or its contents is forbidden without written permission.

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